1) US vs. Venezuela: "Tanker Blockade" Immediately Tenses Markets

The US under President Donald Trump has increased pressure on Venezuela by ordering a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers (entering and leaving Venezuela). This has raised concerns that oil shipments could be disrupted, although the technical details of the "blockade" (how many vessels will be affected and how it will be implemented) remain a major question mark.

From Venezuela's side, the response was strong and they rejected the threat. The market views this story as "short-term bullish" for oil because it increases supply risks, although the real impact will depend largely on whether export flows are actually disrupted or merely political pressure.

2) Russia vs. Ukraine: There is "progress," but the hardest part is still ahead

On the diplomatic front, peace talks are still ongoing. Zelenskiy said the Ukrainian negotiating team would meet with the US team on Friday and Saturday and emphasized that no final proposals have been agreed upon.

The bottom line: The US and its European partners are discussing a security guarantee package for Ukraine, but the most pressing issue remains the same—the territory and format of post-ceasefire security. Russia's signal remains clear: the Kremlin insists its position on European troops in Ukraine is "known," though it says the topic remains "open for discussion."

3) Japan vs. China: "Radar" incident near Okinawa raises tensions again

Japan and China are currently at war over a military incident near the Okinawa/Miyako Strait. Japan accused Chinese fighter jets of aiming radar at Japanese aircraft (which is seen as a dangerous act), while China denied this and accused the Japanese aircraft of disrupting Chinese naval exercises.

The United States has also voiced support for Japan in this disputed version of events—which has further heightened regional tensions, as any small maneuver or incident can quickly become a major issue in the marketplace and diplomacy.

Source: Newsmaker.id